With Monday’s municipal election approaching, a new poll indicates that Bonnie Crombie has gained a significant advantage over her rivals Carolyn Parrish, Alvin Tedjo, and Dipika Damerla in the race for Mississauga’s mayor.
Support for former mayor Crombie has risen to 35 per cent among those who have made up their minds or are leaning toward a candidate, followed by Tedjo at 31 per cent and incumbent Parrish at 28 per cent, according to a Liaison Strategies Mississauga Tracker survey released Thursday.
Damerla is currently polling at four per cent, while two per cent are considering another candidate.
The latest figures indicate a close contest, said David Valentin, a principal at Liaison Strategies.
“It really tells me that voters are pretty conflicted; they’re going in all sorts of different directions,” he remarked.
“It also shows that the race isn’t decided yet. Election day will be crucial and it’s so tight that if conditions favor turnout, any of the three could end up being elected on Monday.”
Campaign Influences Shifting Opinions Among Voters
Valentin points out that Damerla has experienced the largest decline in support since dropping from 11 per cent in the previous poll released on Oct. 5. Both Crombie and Tedjo have gained five points since then, while Parrish has lost one point.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Mississauga residents between Oct. 19 and Oct. 20 using interactive voice recording (IVR) technology. The results were adjusted by age, gender, and ethnicity to align with census data from 2021.
Valentin stated that voter opinions have clearly shifted during the campaign, particularly after Damerla’s criticism of fellow Coun. Tedjo regarding his support for police budget increases during their first debate on Sept. 25.
Similarly, some voters perceive what Valentin calls a “mean streak” in Parrish due to her comments aimed at Crombie-specifically referring to her as a “blond bombshell” during an Oct. 1 debate hosted by City News.
Parrish later expressed regret about making that remark during an interview with CBC Peel.
WATCH | Why Carolyn Parrish regrets calling ‘blonde bombshell’ remark against Bonnie Crombie:
Mississauga’s incumbent mayor regrets calling predecessor Crombie a ‘blond bombshell’
In an exclusive interview with CBC Peel, Mississauga’s incumbent Mayor Carolyn Parrish says she regrets calling mayoral candidate Bonnie Crombie a “blond bombshell” during a debate moderated by City News on Oct. 1
Valentin mentioned that polls have favored Tedjo most recently as he’s made notable gains since summer.
Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University, highlighted how this is truly a tight three-way race where any candidate could come out on top come Monday due to how closely they’re trailing each other.
This municipal election stands out because both current and former mayors are competing for the position, noted Valentin.
‘Typically an incumbent symbolizes stability,’ he explained. ‘In this case though you could argue both [Crombie and Parrish] represent that because residents aren’t questioning whether Crombie can perform as mayor; they’ve seen her do it.’
‘Record Numbers’ for Early Voter Participation
These figures emerge as Mississauga reports over 44,000 voters having already cast their ballots-marking “a new record for advance voting turnout,” according to city officials in a release.
This reflects a remarkable increase of 57 percent compared to early voting numbers from the last municipal election when just over 28 thousand people voted ahead of election day.
Siemiatycki believes higher early turnout correlates with how competitive this year’s election has been.
“It’s been quite an intense campaign generating considerable interest,” he stated. “I think there’s good reason to believe this spike in advance polling suggests more folks are getting involved in the electoral process.”
WATCH | What could a jump in early voting mean for Brampton on election day?:
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New data shows increased early voting rates among Brampton residents. CBC ’s Dana Roberts explores what implications it might have for actual voting day. p >
Brampton is also experiencing higher early voter turnout , reporting an eight percent increase , with almost twenty-five thousand residents already having voted.
“I wouldn’t anticipate much higher overall voter participation in Brampton compared to prior elections because it hasn’t been as fiercely contested or controversial like what’s happening here in Mississauga,” Siemiatycki commented.
However , both Siemiatycki and Valentin caution against placing too much emphasis solely on early voter numbers , as they don’t necessarily guarantee increased total turnout overall.
Residents often prefer advance voting options since they’re available across multiple days offering greater flexibility; but these statistics don’t reflect how many will show up when election day arrives.
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